Gate.io Research: Bitcoin Periodic Correlation Analysis

TL;DR1.BlackRockandCoinbase’sPartnershipstrengthensapositiveinstitutionalattitude2.USmacrorecoverybutinflationispushingFedtobemoreaggressiveonraisinginterestrates3.BitcoinreturnisgrowingclosertoUSequitymarkets4.BitcoinreturnisstrictlynegativelycorrelatedwithUSinterestrates5.BitcoinreturnissensitivetoM0changesratherthanM1orM2intheUS1.ResearchBackground

1.1InstitutionalPreference

BlackRockInc.(NYSE:BLK)announceditspartnershipwithCoinbaseGlobalInc.(NASDAQ:COIN)onAugust4,2022,sendingCoinbasesharesrocketingthatday.Thispartnershipisastrongstimulusforthenegativecryptomarketsentiment,hammeredbyfallingpricesandgovernmentinvestigations.As,BlackRock,thelargestassetmanager,ismakingiteasierforinstitutionalinvestorstomanageandtradeBitcoin.TheannouncementfueledCoinbasesharestorocketforafewdaysandwaseventuallycalmedbyCoinbase'sQ2earnings.Nevertheless,thismoveisconsideredaleapinthecryptomarketasinstitutionalinvestorsarereachingin.'Thepactisaseismicshiftinthecryptoindustry.'saidLeahWald,CEOofValkyrieInvestments.TopBlackRockclientswillgainaccesstoBitcointhroughitsAladdininvestmentmanagementsystem,makingiteasiertomanagetheirexposurealongwiththeirstocksandbonds.Andthefocus'willinitiallybeonBitcoin',BlackRockmentioned.BlackRockisthelargestassetmanagerintheworld,with8.5trillionUSDundermanagementbyJune2022andthereareapproximately21trillionUSDworthoffinancialassetsmanagedonAladdin.AccordingtoCreditSuisse,thetotalwealthoftheworldby2020is418trillionUSD,andthetotalassetonAladdincountsfor5%ofit.1.2MacroRecovery

Multichain暫停從Cronos、OKC、KCC、HECO、Gatechain、BTTC的部分資產提現:11月11日消息，Multichain將暫停從Cronos、OKC、KCC、HECO、Gatechain、BTTC的部分資產提現功能，充值功能正常。[2022/11/11 12:52:33]

TheUSeconomyadded528,000jobsinJuly,beatingestimatesby100%,andJunejobdataisupwardlyrevisedto398,000.ThebiggestpushinJulywasleisureandhospitality,particularlyinfoodserviceanddrinking.Andtheunemploymentratefellto3.5%whichisathistoricallowtyingthepre-pandemiclevel.Thisisastrongshowingofeconomicrecovery.However,theskyrocketinginflationisstillahugehurdlefortheFederalReservetocross.Standingonthishistoricalturningpointofeconomicuncertainty,itisveryimportanttoreviewwhathistoryhastaughtusandmoveforwardwiththenewforcesinthecryptoindustry.Inthisstudy,wewillexaminethehistoricalcorrelationsofBitcoinreturnsrelativetoothereconomicandmarketvariablestoshowthewaybeforeandhopetogainsomeinsightsintothepathahead.Standingonthishistoricalturningpointofeconomicuncertainty,itisveryimportanttoreviewwhathistoryhastaughtusandmoveforwardwiththenewforcesinthecryptoindustry.Inthisstudy,wewillexaminethehistoricalcorrelationsofBitcoinreturnsrelativetoothereconomicandmarketvariablestoshowthewaybeforeandhopetogainsomeinsightsintothepathahead.2.MethodofResearch&Data

Bitcoinmarketismoreofaglobalmarketratherthanaregionalone.Butinthisresearch,wearefocusingontheUSeconomyasastartingpointandwouldextendtoothereconomiesinthefuture.ThisresearchwilladoptmonthlydatafromJan.2015toJun.2022.WearepickingBitcoinmonthlyreturnsasitisabetterindicatorandeasiertocomparetoothervariables,especiallymacroeconomicvariablesinthisresearch.Correlationsbetweenallthevariableswillbecalculatedanddifferenttimeframeswillbeselectedtocalculatethecorrelationindifferenttimeframes,inanattempttoseechangesindifferentmarketconditions.ThefollowingUSmacroeconomicdataareselected:ItisimportanttostatethatanycorrelationfoundinthisresearchdoesNOTindicatecausation.Thecorrelationonlysuggeststhetendencyoftwovariablestomovetogether,andhowdeepthattendencyis.Causationrelationscanonlybeinferredthroughfurtherstudies.AlldatausedinthisresearchisfromtheSt.LouisFREDdatabase.3.SimpleCorrelationAnalysis

Gate.io 已完成11月21日FIL代幣轉化分發，總量約1.3萬枚:據官方公告，Gate.io今日（11月21日）已經根據用戶FIL6持倉情況完成FIL分發，總計約1.3萬枚，用戶可在賬戶賬單明細中查看詳情。目前Gate.io已經支持Filecoin（FIL）現貨交易，充值提現，杠杠交易，幣幣理財，永續合約交易等全線系列產品和服務。[2020/11/21 21:36:10]

3.1Methodology

Simplecorrelationanalysiswoulduseallthedatatocalculateonecorrelationcoefficientbetweenanytwovariables.Thisanalysisistogiveamacroviewoftherelationbetweenallthevariablesandservesasabenchmarkforthefollowinganalysis.3.2Correlations&Analysis

ThechartaboveshowsthesimplecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandothervariables.Therearethreeinterestingfactswefound:1.Althoughthecorrelationcoefficientsarelowingeneral,withahighof0.27andalowof-0.23,thecoefficientsarehigherincertainmarketreturnscategories.2.ThecorrelationbetweenBitcoinreturnsandinflationforallurbanconsumersisnear0,andthecorrelationwithinflationinfoodissignificantlyhigherat-0.23.ThisisagoodindicationthattheUSmoneysupplycausedinflation,andtheoversupplycoupledwithCovidencouragedalargenumberofindividualindicatorstopurchaseBTCduringtheCovidWFHperiod.3.Thecorrelationintheinterestratecategoryisallnegative,suggestingtheriskynatureofBitcoinreturns.ThiscouldbecausedbystronginterestmovesbytheFederalReservetocontrolinflation.4.CommoditymarketdoesnothaveanobviousrelationwithBitcoinreturns.4.AnnualCorrelationAnalysis

4.1Methodology

AnnualcorrelationanalysiswoulddivideeachvariableintodifferentnatureyearsandcalculatethecorrelationwithineachyeartofindaprogressionofrelationsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandothervariables.ThechangesincorrelationcoefficientswouldoffergoodinsightsintohowBitcoinreturnsprogressovertheyears.Wewouldalsocomparetheannualcorrelationwiththesimplecorrelationfromtheprevioussection.Andsincewearestillintheyear2022,wefurtherexaminedtheresultswithandwithoutdatafrom2022attheendofthesection.4.2Correlations&Analysis

聲音 | Gath3r首席財務官兼聯合創始人：今年內比特幣價格不會回升至歷史最高點:據福布斯消息，美國加密貨幣挖礦服務公司Gath3r首席財務官兼聯合創始人Farrukh Shaikh表示，2019年內比特幣不會升至2萬美元歷史最高點。但到2020年，BTC利潤將減半，礦業回報將減半，這可能會幫助比特幣在2021年達到2萬美元。其認為，比特幣在現實世界的使用、采用和接受度在逐漸增加，這對比特幣未來的價格預期也是積極的。[2019/5/12]

ThefigureaboveshowsthecorrelationevolutionbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmajormarketindexreturns.Asthefigureshows,thetrendvariesovertheyearsandisextremelyunstable.However,thecorrelationsareveryclosetoeachotheruntil2022.Thiscouldbeexplainedbythelackofdatain2022orthesignificantbearmarketorabadmacroeconomicenvironment.Whenwetakeacloselookatthisgraph,theupwardtrendisveryclear,especiallybefore2022.ThereisagrowingtiebetweenBitcoinreturnsandmajormarketindexes.Thereisanothercharacteristicofthisgraphwhencomparedtotheothers,isthatthelinesareverytighttogether.Thisiscausedbythehighcorrelationbetweenmarketindexes,around80%oftheequitymarketmovestogether.Thefigureaboveshowstheannualcorrelationbetweeninflationsandlabormarketstatistics.Somecleartrendscanbeobserved:1.ThecorrelationbetweeninflationandBitcoinreturnsisdroppingovertheyears,whiletheinflationinfoodandBitcoinreturnsareslowlygrowingties.ThismaysuggestthatBitcoinisgrowingawayfromitsdigitalgolddefinitionandbecomingmoreofariskyasset.2.ThecorrelationsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandlabormarketstatisticsareallrisingfrom2015to2021anddroppingsharplyin2022,especiallythecorrelationwiththeunemploymentrateofpeoplewithbachelor'sorhigherdegreesandagesover25.ThisfigureshowsthecorrelationtrendbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmoneysupply.Itisclearthatthecorrelationlevelsarerisingthrough2015and2021.Thecorrelationpeakedin2021andsoonturneddownin2022.Thedownturnin2022,couldbejustanadjustmentofanupwardtrend,likemanybefore.Oritissimplyduetothelackofdatain2022.ThistrendalsoshowsthatBitcoin'sbehaviorresemblesthatofariskyasset,withapositivecorrelationtomoneysupplies.Figure5showsthecorrelationbetweenBitcoinreturnsanddifferentinterestratelevels.SimilartoFigure2,thelinesareverytightandtrendinginthesamedownwarddirection.ThedownwardtrendofthefigureisveryclearandthisisinlinewithwhatwasfoundinpreviousfiguresthatBitcoinisbehavinglikeariskyassetratherthanarisklessone.Asimpleeconomicslessonhere.Whenthereistoomuchmoneyintheeconomy,theFederalReservewouldincreasetheinterestratetoreduceliquidity.Lessmoneyintheeconomywouldcauseriskyassets,likeequities,totank.Therefore,thecorrelationbetweentheequitymarketandinterestratelevelisnegative.WhenBitcoinisnegativelycorrelatedwithinterestratesandpositivelycorrelatedwiththeequitymarket,wecouldinferthatBitcoinisactinglikeariskyasset.4.3AnnualCorrelationSummary

gate關于完成為BOT空投BOE以及開通交易時間的公告:gate.io發布公告稱，已經為平臺所有BOT用戶按照1：1空投BOE快照，并將會在2018年6月1日14：00（下午2點）重新開啟BOT交易，開通交易后的BOT將無法再次獲得空投，市場價格可能會出現劇烈波動。[2018/6/1]

Theannualcorrelationcoefficientssummaryisasfollows:Asthetableabovesummarizes,thereareverycleartrendsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmostofthevariables.However,allthetrendsshiftedin2022.Asmentioned,thiscouldbeexplainedbythelackofdata,sincethereareonly6monthsofdatainthesample.OrthestrongBearmarketistoblamefortheshift.Ingeneral,BitcoinisbehavingclosetoariskyassetwithagrowingcorrelationwiththeUSequitymarket.5.Bull&BearCorrelationAnalysis

5.1Methodology

Inthismethod,wewouldtrytocutthedatabybullandbearmarketconditions,andcalculatethecorrelationbetweentheBitcoinreturnsandothervariablesineachmarketcondition.Inthismethod,wewouldliketoexploretheinteractionsindifferentmarketconditions.SincethedefinitionofBullorBearmarketconditionisnotstrictlydefined,thedivisionofdataissubjectivetoourdefinitionsandtheconclusionissubjecttopersonalview.Ourdefinitionisasfollows:Bullmarket:whentheBTCreturnsareingeneralpositiveandrising.Bearmarket:whentheBTCreturnsareingeneralnegativeanddecreasing.Figure6showsthemonthlyreturnsofBitcoinforthepastfewyears,andwewilldividetheBullandBearmarketasfollows:5.2CorrelationsandAnalysis

Accordingtoourbullandbearmarketdivision,thecorrelationbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmarketindexesishigherinbullmarketsandlowerinbearmarkets.ThisfindingsuggeststhatBitcoinreturnsaremoreinsyncwithstockmarketreturnsduringbullrunsandlessinpaceduringbearmarkets.TheCorrelationbetweenmoneysupplyandBitcoinreturnsisnotuniform,suggestingthemoneybaseismorecloselyrelatedtoBitcoinreturnsthanM1andM2duringdifferentmarketconditions.Figure9showstheevolutionofBitcoinasanasset.Duringthefirstbullmarket,thepositivecorrelationsuggestsBitcoinismorelikearisklessasset.However,asBitcoinevolvesoverthemarketcondition,itisgainingtheattributeofariskyasset,ratherthanarisklessone.Aswementionedatthebeginningofthissection,thedefinitionofbullandbearmarketsisnotstrict.Wemadeourdefinitionsandbasedouranalysisonthem.Theresultsinthissectionarenottobeinferredasinvestmentsuggestions.6.BTCReturnsVolatilityComparisonAnalysis

gate.io上線SentinelChain(SENC)交易:gate.io將于2018年4月2日16:00開通交易（下午4:00點），SENC總計5億枚，項目總共募集到US$1440萬資金，SENC在2018年4月2日6:00am才能允許區塊鏈轉移，請用戶在此時間之后再充值到平臺，避免浪費轉賬手續費。開通交易后SENC將空投百萬大獎。Sentinel鏈是一個全球B2B市場，用于接受使用牲畜作為抵押的金融服務。[2018/3/27]

6.1Methodology

Inthepreviousanalysis,wehaveestablishedthatBitcoinreturnsaregrowingmorepositivelycorrelatedwithmajorUSequitymarketindexes.Inthissection,wewillexplorethevolatilityofBitcoincomparedtotheUSequitymarketindexes.Wewillcalculatethestandarddeviationtoquantifyvolatilityforeachyear.Thehigherthestandarddeviationis,thegreaterthevolatilityis.6.2Volatility

Thefigureaboveshowsthevolatilitylevelsovertheyears.WecanclearlyseethatBitcoinvolatilitiesaresignificantlyhigherthanthatoftheequitymarkets.ThisisenoughtosaythatBitcoinisariskyassetwithhighvolatility.Anotherinterestingdiscoveryisthatequitymarketreturnsvolatilityisraisingfrom2017to2020,butBitcoinreturnsvolatilityisdropping.Combinedwiththegrowingcorrelation,thisisshowingsomelevelofconvergencebetweentheBitcoinmarketandthemajorUSequitymarket.7.Conclusion

Bitcoinandblockchaintechnology,withtheirgrowingimpactandtechnicalcapability,aregainingmoreandmoreattentionaroundtheworld,andBlackRockisjustthelatestofmany.Thisstudy,asmentionedinthebeginning,isasimplerecapofhowBitcoinhasevolvedintermsofrelationswiththemarketandeconomicvariablesovertheyears.Thereweremanyupsanddowns,andsowillthefuture.Whathasnotchangedisourfaithinthistechnologyanditsbrightfuture.Therearesomesimpleconclusionsthatwecandrawfromthisstudy:1.Bitcoinisgrowingmorecloselytoanequity-likeriskyassetwithahighpositivecorrelationwiththeequitymarketsandanegativecorrelationwithinterestrates.2.BitcoinreturnsaremoresensitivetomonetarybasechangesratherthanM1orM2.3.Bitcoinreturnsarenegativelycorrelatedtoinflationbutpositivelycorrelatedtoinflationinfood.4.Bitcoinreturnsaremorecloselyrelatedtoequitymarketsduringbullruns.5.BitcoinreturnsvolatilityissignificantlyhigherthanthatofthemajorUSequitymarketswhichmeansBitcoinisfarriskier.Disclaimer

*Thisarticlerepresentsonlytheviewsoftheobserversanddoesnotconstituteanyinvestmentsuggestions.*Gate.ioreservesallrightstothisarticle.RepostingofthearticlewillbepermittedprovidedGate.ioisreferenced.Inallothercases,legalactionwillbetakenduetocopyrightinfringement.GatewaytoCryptoTradeover1,400cryptocurrenciessafely,quicklyandeasilyonGate.ioSignuptoenterthecryptogatewayandget40%commissionfromreferralsDownloadiOS/AndroidApprightnow.Reachouttous!Twitter:https://twitter.com/gate_ioTelegram:https://t.me/gate_ioInstagram：https://www.instagram.com/gateioglobalMedium：https://medium.com/@gateioPodcast:https://gateio.buzzsprout.com/?ch=buzzsGate.ioTeamOctober20

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