美聯儲四年多來首次加息 點陣圖顯示后面連著還有9次_ION

在結束兩天的會議后，北京時間今天凌晨，美聯儲宣布加息25個基點。

這是2018年以來美國首次加息。

從新聞稿看，聯儲認為價格壓力是普遍的，不只是能源價格，還有勞動力等，目前的失業率已明顯下降（2月份美國CPI通脹率為7.9%，40年來最高；失業率為3.8%，已接近疫前水平）。

聯儲準備從下次會議開始，減少國債和機構債MBS的持有量。

投票委員中，圣路易斯聯儲主席James Bullard投票加息50個基點。

據FT報道，在會后的記者會上，聯儲主席鮑威爾談到加息是為了應對高通脹和緊張的勞動力市場 extremely tight labor market in high inflation.

點陣圖（dot plot，投票委員對利率區間的預測）顯示，聯儲官員比三個月前調高了利率預測，預計2022年剩下的時間還將加息6次，2023年加息至少3次。聯邦基金利率屆時將達到2.8%，高于影響經濟增長的“中性位置”（多數官員預測的中性利率為2.4%）。

Punchbowl News：有關美聯儲的消息將在今天宣布:11月22日消息，據Punchbowl News：有關美聯儲的消息將在今天宣布。（金十）[2021/11/22 7:04:41]

美國CPI（1965-2022）

美國勞動參與率（1948-2022）

聯儲新聞稿如下：

March 16, 2022

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

美聯儲卡普蘭：加密貨幣尚未被廣泛用作支付手段:美聯儲卡普蘭表示，將加密貨幣與和基礎貨幣掛鉤的數字貨幣區分開來是值得的。 加密貨幣尚未被廣泛用作支付手段。如果加密貨幣廣泛用于支付，我們和其他監管機構將對此進行仔細研究。（金十）[2021/5/22 22:30:55]

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.

美聯儲主席：今年通脹暫時上升不符合加息標準:美聯儲主席鮑威爾表示，今年通脹的暫時上升不符合加息的標準。在勞動力市場仍然疲軟的情況下，似乎不太可能看到通脹持續上升。通脹將進一步有所上漲，然后放緩。需要一段時間才能上調通脹預期，預計這將伴隨著勞動力市場的強勁復蘇。 （金十）[2021/4/29 21:08:50]

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.

聲音 | 美聯儲監管副主席：加密貨幣現在不會對金融穩定構成重大威脅:據經濟參考報消息，美聯儲主管監管的副主席蘭德爾·夸爾斯表示，由于加密貨幣的波動性和難以在支付系統中使用，加密貨幣還不像貨幣那樣有用，不認為加密貨幣現在對金融穩定構成重大威脅，對美元的地位也沒有構成威脅。但是加密貨幣帶來一些問題，其極度波動帶來投資者保護問題，匿名性則帶來了執法問題，恐怖分子融資、各種金融犯罪都是真實的問題，值得注意。美聯儲、美國證監會和美國財政部都在注意相關問題。[2018/12/13]

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

美聯儲副主席認為數字貨幣或將構成嚴重的金融穩定問題:美聯儲理事、負責監管事務的副主席Quarles警告稱：數字貨幣如果被廣泛采用，可能構成“嚴重的金融穩定性問題”。尤其擔心的是，潛在的央行數字貨幣可能會面臨洗錢和網絡襲擊等問題。各大央行應當在發行數字貨幣上保持謹慎，這要求深入評估。[2017/12/1]

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

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